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          广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

          下半年油价将回到75

          来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年04月23日 04:53:01
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          (  中)(国)(人)(民)(银)(行)(上)(周)(六)(推)(出)(半)(年)(内)(的)(第)(二)(次)(降)(息)(。自)(2015年)(3月)(1日)(起)(,金)(融)(机)(构)(一)(年)(期)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(下)(调)(0.25个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(5.35%;一)(年)(期)(存)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(下)(调)(0.25个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(2.5%,同)(时)(结)(合)(推)(进)(利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(改)(革)(,将)(金)(融)(机)(构)(存)(款)(利)(率)(浮)(动)(区)(间)(的)(上)(限)(由)(存)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(的)(1.2倍)(调)(整)(为)(1.3倍)(。  中)(国)(降)(息)(将)(在)(短)(期)(内)(对)(原)(油)(价)(格)(会)(产)(生)(脉)(冲)(式)(的)(刺)(激)(,短)(期)(原)(油)(价)(格)(有)(望)(走)(高)(。中)(国)(需)(求)(一)(直)(是)(支)(撑)(原)(油)(价)(格)(走)(强)(的)(重)(要)(因)(素)(,在)(过)(去)(的)(十)(几)(年)(间)(,来)(自)(中)(国)(的)(新)(增)(石)(油)(需)(求)(构)(成)(了)(全)(球)(原)(油)(新)(增)(需)(求)(的)(绝)(大)(部)(分)(,根)(据)(国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(的)(数)(据)(,自)(1996年)(中)(国)(表)(观)(原)(油)(需)(求)(量)(首)(次)(超)(过)(产)(量)(起)(,截)(止)(2013年)(底)(,中)(国)(对)(外)(石)(油)(依)(存)(度)(已)(高)(达)(到)(57.4%。2013年)(,中)(国)(净)(进)(口)(原)(油)(2052万)(桶)(,占)(全)(球)(原)(油)(贸)(易)(量)(的)(54%,超)(过)(美)(国)(,成)(为)(全)(球)(第)(一)(大)(原)(油)(进)(口)(国)(。从)(去)(年)(三)(季)(度)(开)(始)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(的)(放)(缓)(,直)(接)(影)(响)(到)(了)(对)(全)(球)(原)(油)(的)(新)(增)(需)(求)(,可)(以)(说)(是)(去)(年)(下)(半)(年)(油)(价)(暴)(跌)(的)(重)(要)(原)(因)(之)(一)(。  应)(对)(经)(济)(增)(速)(的)(放)(缓)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(中)(国)(政)(府)(应)(对)(的)(态)(度)(正)(在)(趋)(于)(积)(极)(。继)(去)(年)(11月)(第)(一)(次)(降)(息)(之)(后)(,央)(行)(2月)(份)(进)(行)(了)(降)(准)(,而)(且)(在)(二)(月)(的)(最)(后)(一)(天)(再)(度)(进)(行)(了)(降)(息)(。从)(缓)(解)(实)(体)(经)(济)(融)(资)(难)(的)(角)(度)(来)(说)(,放)(松)(信)(贷)(是)(最)(好)(选)(择)(。在)(金)(融)(系)(统)(扭)(曲)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,央)(行)(降)(息)(需)(要)(辅)(之)(以)(信)(贷)(宽)(松)(政)(策)(。降)(息)(将)(缓)(解)(实)(体)(经)(济)(融)(资)(贵)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(延)(续)(相)(机)(决)(策)(机)(制)(,未)(来)(如)(果)(实)(体)(经)(济)(和)(通)(缩)(压)(力)(进)(一)(步)(加)(大)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(宽)(松)(力)(度)(可)(能)(进)(一)(步)(加)(大)(。而)(从)(国)(内)(外)(的)(历)(史)(经)(验)(来)(看)(,一)(两)(次)(降)(息)(或)(降)(准)(不)(足)(以)(立)(刻)(改)(变)(市)(场)(的)(信)(用)(环)(境)(并)(扭)(转)(实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(下)(滑)(趋)(势)(。因)(此)(我)(们)(认)(为)(,本)(轮)(降)(息)(将)(不)(会)(是)(中)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(宽)(松)(的)(终)(点)(,后)(续)(降)(准)(和)(降)(息)(都)(有)(可)(能)(继)(续)(进)(行)(下)(去)(,直)(至)(经)(济)(放)(缓)(的)(趋)(势)(得)(以)(逆)(转)(。  油)(价)(将)(短)(线)(反)(弹)(  诚)(然)(,根)(据)(其)(他)(各)(国)(实)(施)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(后)(的)(效)(果)(来)(看)(,宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(刺)(激)(作)(用)(需)(要)(一)(定)(的)(时)(间)(才)(能)(反)(映)(到)(实)(体)(经)(济)(之)(中)(。但)(降)(息)(短)(期)(内)(将)(对)(投)(资)(者)(的)(情)(绪)(有)(明)(显)(的)(提)(升)(作)(用)(。考)(虑)(到)(中)(国)(经)(济)(对)(于)(全)(球)(原)(油)(新)(增)(需)(求)(的)(重)(大)(影)(响)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(国)(际)(油)(价)(短)(期)(内)(会)(因)(为)(中)(国)(的)(降)(息)(消)(息)(刺)(激)(而)(有)(所)(反)(弹)(。尤)(其)(是)(春)(节)(以)(来)(,由)(于)(美)(国)(炼)(油)(工)(人)(罢)(工)(导)(致)(美)(国)(的)(原)(油)(库)(存)(数)(据)(居)(高)(不)(下)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(短)(期)(下)(挫)(的)(比)(较)(快)(,WTI原)(油)(从)(53美)(元)(最)(低)(下)(跌)(至)(48美)(元)(,下)(跌)(幅)(度)(达)(到)(-9.4%。而)(此)(时)(中)(国)(的)(降)(息)(消)(息)(,将)(有)(助)(于)(油)(价)(走)(出)(一)(轮)(短)(反)(弹)(,我)(们)(看)(好)(油)(价)(有)(可)(能)(因)(为)(此)(消)(息)(而)(重)(新)(短)(期)(反)(弹)(至)(53-55美)(元)(之)(间)(。  但)(正)(如)(我)(们)(指)(出)(的)(那)(样)(,实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(反)(弹)(目)(前)(来)(看)(还)(需)(要)(一)(定)(的)(时)(期)(。一)(二)(月)(份)(的)(经)(济)(数)(据)(虽)(然)(尚)(未)(公)(布)(,但)(从)(央)(行)(的)(降)(息)(动)(作)(来)(看)(,数)(据)(将)(不)(容)(乐)(观)(。短)(期)(数)(据)(显)(示)(随)(着)(春)(节)(因)(素)(减)(退)(,实)(体)(经)(济)(疲)(弱)(态)(势)(日)(渐)(明)(朗)(。发)(电)(量)(落)(入)(负)(增)(长)(区)(间)(,产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(持)(续)(走)(低)(,显)(示)(生)(产)(活)(动)(并)(不)(景)(气)(。需)(求)(面)(持)(续)(放)(缓)(,今)(年)(黄)(金)(周)(消)(费)(增)(速)(去)(年)(放)(缓)(2个)(百)(分)(点)(。而)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(在)(经)(历)(了)(去)(年)(末)(宽)(松)(政)(策)(下)(的)(复)(苏)(之)(后)(,年)(初)(以)(来)(持)(续)(疲)(弱)(。因)(此)(我)(们)(认)(为)(,往)(后)(看)(一)(到)(两)(个)(月)(,中)(国)(的)(经)(济)(数)(据)(还)(是)(很)(难)(令)(人)(满)(意)(,而)(作)(为)(经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(的)(佐)(证)(,疲)(软)(的)(经)(济)(数)(据)(将)(导)(致)(投)(资)(者)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(担)(心)(,从)(而)(制)(约)(油)(价)(的)(反)(弹)(。因)(此)(短)(期)(反)(弹)(之)(后)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(国)(际)(油)(价)(有)(可)(能)(将)(重)(新)(步)(入)(波)(动)(区)(。  油)(价)(未)(来)(空)(间)(乐)(观)(  但)(从)(今)(年)(全)(年)(来)(看)(,我)(们)(仍)(然)(对)(油)(价)(保)(持)(相)(当)(的)(乐)(观)(。从)(历)(史)(来)(看)(,影)(响)(全)(球)(石)(油)(价)(格)(走)(势)(的)(更)(为)(关)(键)(因)(素)(是)(需)(求)(。就)(需)(求)(方)(面)(而)(言)(,展)(望)(未)(来)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(有)(理)(由)(保)(持)(乐)(观)(。这)(主)(要)(归)(功)(于)(全)(球)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(带)(来)(的)(充)(沛)(流)(动)(性)(。进)(入)(2015年)(,欧)(央)(行)(和)(日)(本)(央)(行)(再)(次)(坚)(定)(地)(执)(行)(了)(大)(规)(模)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(并)(已)(初)(步)(看)(到)(经)(济)(开)(始)(呈)(现)(积)(极)(变)(化)(;而)(中)(国)(央)(行)(也)(在)(短)(短)(的)(3个)(月)(内)(,数)(度)(降)(息)(降)(准)(,向)(市)(场)(释)(放)(了)(明)(确)(的)(宽)(松)(信)(号)(;根)(据)(历)(史)(经)(验)(,宽)(松)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(通)(常)(会)(在)(6个)(月)(左)(右)(的)(时)(间)(对)(实)(体)(经)(济)(产)(生)(作)(用)(。因)(此)(,中)(长)(期)(而)(言)(,我)(们)(有)(理)(由)(对)(全)(球)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(持)(相)(对)(乐)(观)(态)(度)(。而)(从)(供)(给)(面)(而)(言)(,原)(油)(价)(格)(的)(持)(续)(下)(跌)(将)(直)(接)(导)(致)(原)(油)(市)(场)(供)(给)(增)(长)(的)(放)(缓)(,甚)(至)(收)(缩)(。通)(过)(研)(究)(华)(宝)(油)(气)(基)(金)(跟)(踪)(的)(标)(普)(油)(气)(指)(数)(成)(份)(股)(可)(以)(发)(现)(,在)(涉)(及)(上)(游)(原)(油)(开)(采)(的)(约)(80家)(公)(司)(中)(,平)(均)(原)(油)(开)(采)(成)(本)((全)(成)(本)()约)(为)(47美)(元)(/桶)(。可)(以)(预)(期)(,当)(WTI原)(油)(价)(格)(跌)(破)(47美)(元)(/桶)(后)(,越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(企)(业)(对)(新)(油)(井)(开)(采)(的)(投)(资)(将)(受)(到)(影)(响)(,从)(而)(影)(响)(到)(北)(美)(原)(油)(市)(场)(上)(的)(新)(增)(供)(给)(。而)(一)(旦)(WTI原)(油)(价)(格)(跌)(破)(40美)(元)(/桶)(,则)(将)(引)(发)(部)(分)(企)(业)(停)(产)(,甚)(至)(破)(产)(,从)(而)(可)(能)(看)(到)(原)(油)(供)(给)(的)(收)(缩)(。从)(供)(需)(两)(方)(面)(考)(虑)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(油)(价)(系)(统)(性)(的)(反)(转)(,有)(可)(能)(发)(生)(在)(二)(季)(度)(末)(或)(者)(三)(季)(度)(初)(,油)(价)(我)(们)(今)(年)(认)(为)(会)(回)(到)(75-85美)(元)(的)(波)(动)(区)(间)(。  而)(从)(资)(产)(配)(置)(的)(角)(度)(而)(言)(,央)(行)(降)(息)(推)(升)(资)(金)(美)(元)(资)(产)(配)(置)(的)(需)(求)(,华)(宝)(油)(气)(基)(金)(将)(是)(较)(好)(的)(投)(资)(标)(的)(。央)(行)(降)(息)(将)(会)(增)(加)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(的)(压)(力)(。自)(2014年)(11月)(央)(行)(首)(次)(降)(息)(后)(,人)(民)(币)(兑)(美)(元)(即)(期)(汇)(率)(已)(累)(计)(贬)(值)(近)(3%。经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(加)(大)(以)(及)(货)(币)(政)(策)(宽)(松)(预)(期)(增)(强)(将)(推)(动)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(再)(度)(走)(贬)(,上)(周)(兑)(美)(元)(即)(期)(汇)(率)(累)(计)(贬)(值)(145个)(基)(点)(至)(6.2696,超)(过)(去)(年)(最)(高)(水)(平)(。虽)(然)(央)(行)(会)(动)(用)(强)(大)(的)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(,来)(阻)(止)(人)(民)(币)(过)(度)(贬)(值)(而)(引)(发)(的)(大)(量)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(。但)(在)(美)(联)(储)(下)(半)(年)(开)(始)(加)(息)(之)(后)(,外)(汇)(干)(预)(的)(成)(本)(将)(增)(加)(,因)(此)(人)(民)(币)(年)(内)(可)(能)(继)(续)(贬)(值)(3%左)(右)(,将)(是)(大)(概)(率)(事)(件)(。这)(样)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,配)(置)(美)(元)(资)(产)(显)(然)(是)(对)(冲)(掉)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(风)(险)(的)(良)(好)(选)(择)(。而)(我)(们)(在)(前)(面)(的)(文)(章)(中)(也)(曾)(经)(阐)(述)(过)(,我)(们)(今)(年)(对)(于)(美)(国)(股)(市)(仍)(然)(相)(当)(看)(好)(,而)(我)(们)(认)(为)(推)(动)(美)(国)(股)(市)(走)(强)(的)(一)(个)(重)(要)(板)(块)(,将)(会)(是)(能)(源)(板)(块)(。因)(此)(华)(宝)(油)(气)(将)(会)(是)(投)(资)(者)(配)(置)(美)(元)(资)(产)(,同)(时)(享)(受)(油)(价)(反)(弹)(的)(良)(好)(配)(置)(型)(工)(具)(。  ○华)(宝)(油)(气)(基)(金)(经)(理)(周)(晶)(  —企)(业)(形)(象)(—
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