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          广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

          别担心通胀!更要命的是通缩

          来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年04月21日 06:54:14
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          (原)(标)(题)(:齐)(俊)(杰)(:物)(价)(涨)(幅)(破)(2%别)(担)(心)(通)(胀)(!更)(要)(命)(的)(是)(通)(缩)(
          昨)(天)(,统)(计)(局)(公)(布)(了)(12月)(的)(物)(价)(指)(数)(,我)(国)(12月)(CPI同)(比)(上)(涨)(1.9%,而)(环)(比)(持)(平)(。如)(果)(看)(2018年)(全)(年)(数)(据)(,CPI同)(比)(上)(涨)(2.1%,四)(年)(来)(首)(次)(破)(2。
          从)(分)(类)(项)(数)(据)(看)(,还)(是)(食)(品)(价)(格)(带)(动)(为)(主)(,这)(一)(个)(分)(类)(项)(就)(带)(动)(CPI涨)(了)(0.72%,其)(中)(鲜)(果)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(9.4%,影)(响)(CPI上)(涨)(约)(0.16个)(百)(分)(点)(;鲜)(菜)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(4.2%,影)(响)(CPI上)(涨)(约)(0.10个)(百)(分)(点)(。还)(有)(居)(住)(类)(,主)(要)(是)(租)(房)(价)(格)(带)(动)(CPI上)(涨)(,和)(医)(疗)(保)(健)(类)(,药)(品)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(,对)(于)(CPI也)(有)(很)(大)(的)(拉)(升)(作)(用)(。
          有)(人)(说)(年)(度)(CPI破)(2了)(,会)(不)(会)(有)(是)(通)(胀)(风)(险)(了)(,其)(实)(完)(全)(没)(有)(这)(个)(担)(心)(,目)(前)(看)(CPI,月)(度)(同)(比)(指)(标)(还)(是)(下)(降)(的)(趋)(势)(,9月)(,10月)(是)(2.5%,11月)(是)(2.2%,12月)(是)(1.9%,不)(排)(除)(春)(节)(前)(反)(弹)(一)(下)(,但)(应)(该)(也)(不)(会)(很)(高)(,然)(后)(可)(能)(还)(是)(逐)(渐)(回)(落)(的)(走)(势)(,总)(体)(看)(消)(费)(价)(格)(平)(稳)(回)(落)(,除)(了)(蔬)(菜)(水)(果)(,其)(他)(的)(价)(格)(都)(没)(怎)(么)(涨)(。不)(过)(确)(实)(要)(小)(心)(,过)(完)(年)(后)(,往)(往)(是)(租)(房)(的)(旺)(季)(,小)(心)(房)(租)(价)(格)(借)(个)(税)(抵)(扣)(的)(题)(而)(发)(挥)(,在)(长)(租)(公)(寓)(的)(资)(本)(推)(动)(下)(而)(上)(涨)(,这)(个)(风)(险)(是)(存)(在)(的)(。这)(可)(能)(是)(我)(们)(非)(常)(不)(愿)(意)(看)(到)(的)(一)(种)(CPI的)(上)(涨)(方)(式)(,因)(为)(他)(会)(和)(工)(业)(生)(产)(背)(离)(。
          说)(到)(工)(业)(生)(产)(,我)(们)(不)(得)(不)(提)(PPI,也)(就)(是)(工)(业)(品)(价)(格)(指)(数)(, 2018年)(12月)(份)(,全)(国)(工)(业)(生)(产)(者)(出)(厂)(价)(格)(同)(比)(上)(涨)(0.9%,环)(比)(下)(降)(1.0%;工)(业)(生)(产)(者)(购)(进)(价)(格)(同)(比)(上)(涨)(1.6%,环)(比)(下)(降)(0.9%。全)(年)(工)(业)(生)(产)(者)(出)(厂)(价)(格)(比)(上)(年)(上)(涨)(3.5%。从)(PPI来)(看)(,全)(年)(的)(高)(点)(在)(6-7月)(份)(,然)(后)(就)(快)(速)(回)(落)(,他)(是)(我)(们)(经)(济)(的)(领)(先)(指)(标)(,代)(表)(了)(企)(业)(端)(的)(需)(求)(,PPI大)(幅)(回)(落)(表)(明)(工)(业)(需)(求)(萎)(缩)(,干)(什)(么)(都)(不)(赚)(钱)(,那)(么)(企)(业)(也)(就)(啥)(都)(不)(想)(干)(。所)(以)(价)(格)(也)(就)(会)(越)(来)(越)(低)(。这)(其)(实)(就)(是)(我)(们)(说)(的)(通)(缩)(风)(险)(。
          良)(性)(的)(物)(价)(应)(该)(是)(每)(年)(增)(长)(在)(3%以)(内)(,这)(样)(有)(利)(于)(企)(业)(生)(产)(制)(造)(,调)(动)(企)(业)(生)(产)(的)(积)(极)(性)(,物)(价)(上)(涨)(代)(表)(市)(场)(供)(不)(应)(求)(,确)(保)(生)(产)(制)(造)(的)(产)(品)(尽)(量)(能)(够)(卖)(的)(掉)(,而)(如)(果)(物)(价)(不)(断)(收)(缩)(,那)(么)(也)(就)(代)(表)(市)(场)(供)(过)(于)(求)(,生)(产)(再)(多)(也)(都)(是)(卖)(不)(掉)(的)(,所)(以)(企)(业)(当)(然)(也)(就)(不)(生)(产)(了)(,转)(而)(清)(库)(存)(,那)(么)(在)(这)(个)(时)(间)(内)(,经)(济)(增)(长)(就)(会)(停)(止)(,企)(业)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(也)(会)(放)(缓)(。
          所)(以)(,大)(家)(可)(能)(是)(被)(前)(几)(年)(的)(新)(闻)(洗)(脑)(了)(,谈)(CPI色)(变)(,总)(觉)(得)(物)(价)(一)(涨)(,就)(是)(通)(胀)(了)(,但)(其)(实)(物)(价)(涨)(也)(要)(有)(个)(度)(,小)(涨)(怡)(情)(大)(涨)(伤)(身)(,合)(理)(的)(CPI增)(长)(是)(对)(经)(济)(有)(利)(的)(,如)(果)(CPI太)(低)(,甚)(至)(物)(价)(收)(缩)(,那)(么)(大)(家)(恐)(怕)(也)(就)(都)(失)(业)(了)(。虽)(然)(物)(价)(下)(跌)(了)(,但)(是)(收)(入)(没)(了)(,这)(恐)(怕)(也)(不)(是)(大)(家)(希)(望)(看)(到)(的)(情)(况)(。就)(现)(在)(情)(况)(而)(言)(,PPI回)(落)(的)(速)(度)(有)(点)(快)(,企)(业)(预)(期)(十)(分)(悲)(观)(,现)(在)(通)(缩)(风)(险)(已)(经)(越)(来)(越)(大)(了)(。
          面)(对)(现)(在)(的)(情)(况)(,其)(实)(最)(要)(紧)(的)(还)(是)(刺)(激)(需)(求)(,供)(给)(都)(很)(好)(办)(,关)(键)(是)(需)(求)(,只)(要)(有)(需)(求)(,生)(产)(制)(造)(分)(分)(钟)(的)(事)(情)(,而)(需)(求)(是)(什)(么)(?说)(白)(了)(就)(是)(老)(百)(姓)(有)(钱)(消)(费)(,愿)(意)(改)(善)(生)(活)(,对)(未)(来)(预)(期)(良)(好)(,而)(企)(业)(觉)(得)(有)(利)(可)(图)(,愿)(意)(去)(做)(生)(意)(,现)(在)(我)(们)(能)(够)(进)(行)(宏)(观)(调)(控)(的)(手)(段)(,还)(有)(这)(么)(几)(个)(。
          首)(先)(,继)(续)(释)(放)(货)(币)(,比)(如)(MLF和)(降)(准)(,压)(低)(市)(场)(利)(率)(,保)(持)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(宽)(裕)(,让)(银)(行)(有)(足)(够)(的)(资)(金)(。降)(低)(整)(体)(社)(会)(融)(资)(成)(本)(,给)(企)(业)(提)(供)(盈)(利)(空)(间)(。
          其)(次)(,结)(束)(去)(杠)(杆)(,转)(而)(宽)(信)(用)(,通)(过)(政)(策)(性)(银)(行)(,对)(企)(业)(进)(行)(定)(向)(贷)(款)(。扶)(持)(中)(小)(微)(企)(业)(发)(展)(。现)(在)(是)(想)(贷)(款)(的)(企)(业)(过)(不)(了)(审)(核)(,不)(想)(贷)(款)(的)(企)(业)(,银)(行)(却)(追)(着)(放)(钱)(。所)(以)(银)(行)(这)(端)(,必)(须)(要)(有)(所)(突)(破)(。要)(知)(道)(他)(们)(只)(能)(锦)(上)(添)(花)(不)(会)(主)(动)(雪)(中)(送)(炭)(,这)(也)(导)(致)(了)(货)(币)(机)(制)(传)(导)(不)(下)(去)(,所)(以)(必)(须)(降)(低)(信)(用)(门)(槛)(。激)(活)(大)(多)(数)(企)(业)(。
          第)(三)(,继)(续)(减)(税)(降)(费)(,企)(业)(之)(所)(以)(不)(做)(生)(意)(,不)(贷)(款)(!就)(是)(因)(为)(无)(利)(可)(图)(,所)(以)(必)(须)(想)(办)(法)(降)(低)(他)(的)(成)(本)(,企)(业)(成)(本)(主)(要)(三)(块)(,市)(场)(成)(本)(,三)(费)(成)(本)(还)(有)(税)(费)(成)(本)(,三)(费)(成)(本)(可)(以)(通)(过)(上)(面)(的)(两)(条)(,压)(低)(利)(率)(降)(低)(财)(务)(成)(本)(,而)(税)(费)(成)(本)(必)(须)(通)(过)(财)(政)(的)(降)(费)(减)(税)(来)(完)(成)(。这)(块)(降)(下)(去)(的)(就)(是)(利)(润)(。至)(于)(市)(场)(成)(本)(就)(要)(看)(下)(面)(一)(条)(了)(
          第)(四)(,行)(政)(压)(制)(社)(会)(成)(本)(,降)(低)(资)(产)(泡)(沫)(对)(实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(冲)(击)(,最)(主)(要)(的)(就)(是)(房)(租)(和)(房)(价)(,以)(及)(国)(家)(管)(控)(的)(能)(源)(品)(价)(格)(,房)(租)(如)(果)(上)(涨)(,雇)(员)(生)(活)(成)(本)(就)(会)(上)(涨)(,要)(求)(的)(工)(资)(就)(会)(提)(高)(,进)(而)(提)(高)(企)(业)(的)(成)(本)(,所)(以)(如)(今)(的)(经)(济)(困)(局)(更)(多)(都)(与)(房)(租)(和)(房)(价)(有)(关)(,我)(们)(的)(工)(业)(对)(外)(,之)(所)(以)(失)(去)(了)(廉)(价)(劳)(动)(力)(的)(成)(本)(优)(势)(,说)(白)(了)(就)(是)(因)(为)(这)(块)(引)(起)(的)(,工)(资)(不)(够)(房)(租)(,他)(是)(无)(论)(如)(何)(不)(能)(再)(干)(下)(去)(了)(。一)(个)(城)(市)(白)(领)(想)(买)(房)(,他)(就)(只)(能)(到)(收)(入)(更)(高)(的)(公)(司)(去)(就)(业)(。面)(对)(房)(价)(的)(压)(迫)(,任)(何)(理)(想)(情)(怀)(都)(不)(值)(一)(提)(了)(。所)(以)(只)(要)(给)(高)(价)(,就)(能)(带)(走)(人)(才)(,于)(是)(人)(才)(市)(场)(也)(就)(陷)(入)(了)(价)(格)(战)(,再)(加)(上)(这)(几)(年)(资)(本)(推)(动)(,让)(很)(多)(企)(业)(压)(力)(越)(来)(越)(大)(,不)(涨)(薪)(留)(不)(住)(人)(才)(,涨)(薪)(利)(润)(就)(没)(有)(了)(。
          所)(以)(综)(合)(来)(看)(,现)(在)(要)(想)(恢)(复)(经)(济)(的)(活)(力)(,必)(须)(先)(应)(对)(通)(缩)(的)(压)(力)(,而)(应)(对)(通)(缩)(就)(要)(先)(激)(活)(企)(业)(的)(活)(力)(,企)(业)(活)(了)(就)(业)(才)(能)(活)(,大)(家)(的)(收)(入)(提)(高)(了)(,消)(费)(才)(能)(起)(来)(,这)(个)(链)(条)(要)(想)(冷)(启)(动)(,必)(须)(有)(人)(要)(率)(先)(让)(利)(,央)(行)(和)(财)(政)(的)(在)(2019年)(都)(需)(要)(更)(积)(极)(一)(点)(。
          来)(源)(:金)(融)(界)(网)(站)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
          声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
          阅)(读)(()
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