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          广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

          七大投资总监投资反思录:更重视企业内在价值

          来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年04月23日 04:49:27
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          腾讯分分彩计划【推荐】客服QQ【306619052】诚招代理,腾讯5,10分,欢乐生肖,最高返水100反9,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台,平台24h提供注册及登录。七大投资总监投资反思录:更重视企业内在价值

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          (  【导)(读)(】在)(市)(场)(伤)(痛)(渐)(渐)(愈)(合)(之)(际)(,更)(应)(该)(反)(思)(过)(去)(一)(年)(甚)(至)(更)(长)(时)(间)(,市)(场)(发)(生)(了)(什)(么)(。市)(场)(中)(极)(端)(事)(情)(经)(常)(会)(超)(预)(期)(发)(生)(,投)(资)(上)(需)(要)(更)(重)(视)(风)(险)(,加)(强)(流)(动)(性)(管)(理)(,投)(资)(回)(归)(本)(源)(——从)(公)(司)(内)(在)(价)(值)(和)(产)(业)(变)(迁)(上)(做)(长)(期)(投)(资)(。
            中)(国)(基)(金)(报)(方)(丽)(李)(沪)(生)(李)(树)(超)(
            市)(场)(牛)(熊)(更)(迭)(如)(岁)(月)(轮)(回)(,不)(少)(投)(资)(人)(士)(也)(将)(行)(情)(的)(起)(伏)(视)(为)(一)(场)(修)(行)(。在)(过)(去)(的)(一)(年)(间)(,A股)(盛)(极)(而)(衰)(,不)(断)(有)(超)(出)(经)(验)(之)(外)(的)(事)(件)(出)(现)(,给)(市)(场)(所)(有)(参)(与)(者)(上)(了)(重)(要)(一)(课)(。站)(在)(目)(前)(这)(个)(时)(点)(上)(,回)(顾)(一)(年)(来)(的)(风)(风)(雨)(雨)(,别)(有)(一)(番)(滋)(味)(在)(心)(头)(。
            中)(国)(基)(金)(报)(特)(别)(邀)(请)(了)(招)(商)(基)(金)(副)(总)(经)(理)(沙)(k?(、华)(泰)(柏)(瑞)(基)(金)(投)(资)(总)(监)(方)(伦)(煜)(、国)(泰)(基)(金)(权)(益)(投)(资)(事)(业)(部)(总)(经)(理)(黄)(焱)(、融)(通)(基)(金)(投)(资)(总)(监)(商)(小)(虎)(、国)(海)(富)(兰)(克)(林)(基)(金)(投)(资)(总)(监)(徐)(荔)(蓉)(、万)(家)(基)(金)(投)(资)(总)(监)(莫)(海)(波)(、北)(信)(瑞)(丰)(基)(金)(副)(总)(经)(理)(高)(峰)(等)(七)(位)(分)(管)(投)(资)(的)(副)(总)(经)(理)(或)(投)(资)(总)(监)(,共)(同)(回)(望)(过)(去)(一)(年)(的)(A股)(市)(场)(。这)(7位)(投)(资)(总)(监)(认)(为)(,在)(市)(场)(伤)(痛)(渐)(渐)(愈)(合)(之)(际)(,更)(应)(该)(反)(思)(过)(去)(一)(年)(甚)(至)(更)(长)(时)(间)(,市)(场)(发)(生)(了)(什)(么)(。市)(场)(中)(极)(端)(事)(情)(经)(常)(会)(超)(预)(期)(发)(生)(,投)(资)(上)(需)(要)(更)(重)(视)(风)(险)(,加)(强)(流)(动)(性)(管)(理)(,投)(资)(回)(归)(本)(源)(——从)(公)(司)(内)(在)(价)(值)(和)(产)(业)(变)(迁)(上)(做)(长)(期)(投)(资)(。
            回)(归)(“常)(识)(”
            狂)(飙)(突)(进)(的)(2015年)(前)(6个)(月)(,令)(所)(有)(市)(场)(参)(与)(者)(炫)(目)(,而)(如)(今)(提)(起)(那)(一)(段)(激)(动)(人)(心)(的)(时)(光)(,这)(几)(位)(投)(资)(总)(监)(更)(多)(想)(到)(的)(是)(回)(归)(“常)(识)(”、回)(归)(理)(性)(。
            招)(商)(基)(金)(副)(总)(经)(理)(沙)(k?(正)(是)(去)(年)(5月)(份)(加)(盟)(的)(招)(商)(基)(金)(,他)(进)(入)(公)(司)(先)(做)(了)(两)(件)(事)(,一)(是)(力)(劝)(投)(研)(同)(事)(不)(要)(盲)(目)(“奔)(私)(”,二)(是)(着)(手)(准)(备)(批)(量)(发)(行)(保)(本)(基)(金)(。“这)(么)(做)(最)(根)(本)(的)(原)(因)(在)(于)(当)(时)(的)(牛)(市)(带)(有)(高)(波)(动)(、高)(杠)(杆)(率)(、高)(估)(值)(特)(征)(,而)(常)(识)(告)(诉)(我)(们)(,这)(不)(可)(能)(同)(时)(持)(续)(很)(长)(时)(间)(。我)(的)(职)(业)(生)(涯)(已)(经)(经)(历)(过)(四)(轮)(牛)(市)(,20年)(的)(经)(验)(让)(我)(看)(到)(,每)(次)(牛)(熊)(转)(换)(都)(有)(着)(类)(似)(的)(过)(程)(。虽)(然)(我)(并)(不)(知)(道)(牛)(市)(究)(竟)(会)(维)(持)(多)(久)(,但)(经)(验)(提)(醒)(我)(牛)(市)(尾)(声)(可)(能)(就)(要)(来)(临)(。”沙)(k?(表)(示)(,当)(时)(还)(有)(几)(个)(重)(点)(指)(标)(他)(让)(提)(起)(警)(惕)(:第)(一)(,从)(过)(去)(经)(验)(来)(看)(,全)(球)(的)(股)(票)(市)(场)(其)(实)(都)(是)(同)(步)(的)(。以)(纳)(斯)(达)(克)(指)(数)(为)(例)(,去)(年)(5月)(正)(是)(美)(国)(牛)(市)(顶)(峰)(,而)(涨)(得)(最)(多)(的)(创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(则)(是)(在)(去)(年)(6月)(份)(见)(顶)(;第)(二)(,去)(年)(的)(牛)(市)(部)(分)(程)(度)(上)(可)(以)(说)(是)(流)(动)(性)(驱)(动)(,而)(去)(年)(初)(美)(联)(储)(逐)(步)(停)(止)(扩)(表)(,自)(2015年)(二)(季)(度)(初)(,A股)(整)(体)(流)(动)(性)(的)(宽)(松)(程)(度)(就)(开)(始)(出)(现)(边)(际)(下)(降)(。
            不)(过)(,沙)(k?(表)(示)(,从)(成)(熟)(市)(场)(的)(发)(展)(历)(程)(来)(看)(,泡)(沫)(破)(灭)(并)(非)(都)(是)(坏)(处)(,其)(过)(程)(中)(往)(往)(也)(会)(催)(生)(一)(批)(伟)(大)(的)(公)(司)(,例)(如)(2001年)(美)(国)(互)(联)(网)(泡)(沫)(破)(灭)(之)(后)(,谷)(歌)(、亚)(马)(逊)(等)(公)(司)(横)(空)(出)(世)(。中)(国)(也)(可)(能)(出)(现)(类)(似)(的)(情)(况)(。
            融)(通)(基)(金)(投)(资)(总)(监)(商)(小)(虎)(直)(接)(点)(评)(为)(“盛)(极)(而)(衰)(”。A股)(经)(历)(了)(2014年)(9月)(至)(2015年)(6月)(的)(市)(场)(疯)(狂)(,然)(后)(高)(昂)(的)(音)(乐)(戛)(然)(而)(止)(。回)(头)(看)(,A股)(2015年)(牛)(市)(阶)(段)(除)(了)(高)(杠)(杆)(等)(宏)(观)(特)(征)(,通)(过)(观)(察)(市)(场)(参)(与)(者)(的)(行)(为)(也)(可)(以)(发)(现)(,去)(年)(的)(四)(五)(月)(间)(,研)(究)(员)(抛)(弃)(传)(统)(估)(值)(方)(法)(,开)(口)(必)(谈)(“市)(梦)(率)(”,这)(种)(情)(况)(很)(像)(美)(国)(2001年)(科)(网)(泡)(沫)(出)(现)(的)(时)(候)(;上)(市)(公)(司)(只)(要)(提)(到)(“有)(诉)(求)(”,股)(价)(就)(会)(迅)(速)(蹿)(升)(;投)(资)(经)(理)(也)(是)(“唯)(新)(唯)(小)(唯)(空)(间)(”。所)(以)(,潜)(在)(的)(非)(理)(性)(繁)(荣)(是)(市)(场)(大)(跌)(的)(最)(大)(内)(在)(动)(因)(。此)(外)(,高)(杠)(杆)(、资)(本)(外)(流)(等)(也)(加)(剧)(了)(市)(场)(的)(波)(动)(。
            北)(信)(瑞)(丰)(基)(金)(副)(总)(经)(理)(高)(峰)(也)(表)(示)(,和)(去)(年)(6月)(初)(的)(高)(点)(相)(比)(,现)(在)(很)(多)(股)(票)(价)(格)(已)(经)(跌)(去)(了)(三)(分)(之)(二)(以)(上)(,但)(估)(值)(依)(然)(不)(便)(宜)(,以)(至)(于)(大)(部)(分)(投)(资)(者)(对)(市)(场)(还)(是)(很)(难)(建)(立)(信)(心)(,这)(也)(从)(一)(个)(侧)(面)(说)(明)(去)(年)(股)(市)(上)(涨)(时)(有)(多)(么)(疯)(狂)(。市)(场)(波)(动)(大)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(,一)(是)(大)(部)(分)(投)(资)(者)(对)(股)(票)(投)(资)(的)(盈)(利)(预)(期)(有)(偏)(差)(,把)(股)(票)(投)(资)(作)(为)(一)(个)(短)(期)(可)(以)(赚)(取)(高)(收)(益)(的)(市)(场)(;二)(是)(一)(些)(决)(定)(市)(场)(基)(础)(的)(政)(策)(不)(稳)(定)(和)(不)(明)(朗)(,参)(与)(各)(方)(也)(难)(以)(建)(立)(长)(期)(的)(稳)(定)(预)(期)(。
            高)(杠)(杆)(值)(得)(反)(思)(
            “高)(杠)(杆)(也)(是)(各)(国)(市)(场)(大)(跌)(的)(共)(同)(特)(点)(。高)(杠)(杆)(在)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(特)(点)(表)(现)(为)(高)(杠)(杆)(水)(平)(是)(非)(透)(明)(的)(、难)(以)(量)(化)(的)(。当)(市)(场)(下)(跌)(时)(,未)(知)(的)(恐)(惧)(会)(被)(无)(限)(放)(大)(。2015年)(高)(峰)(期)(,场)(内)(的)(两)(融)(余)(额)(突)(破)(2万)(亿)(元)(、股)(票)(质)(押)(余)(额)(逼)(近)(万)(亿)(元)(,这)(些)(都)(有)(实)(际)(数)(据)(,是)(可)(以)(观)(测)(到)(的)(。但)(是)(,场)(外)(的)(配)(资)(、HOMES拖)(拉)(机)(账)(户)(、伞)(形)(信)(托)(、结)(构)(化)(理)(财)(等)(杠)(杆)(却)(不)(可)(监)(测)(,规)(模)(预)(测)(也)(从)(最)(初)(的)(1.2万)(亿)(元)(直)(到)(最)(后)(的)(接)(近)(4万)(亿)(元)(。”商)(小)(虎)(强)(调)(,市)(场)(需)(要)(高)(度)(重)(视)(高)(杠)(杆)(。
            万)(家)(基)(金)(投)(资)(总)(监)(莫)(海)(波)(也)(表)(示)(,整)(个)(市)(场)(疯)(狂)(加)(杠)(杆)(的)(现)(象)(要)(控)(制)(,杠)(杆)(不)(能)(太)(高)(,这)(会)(导)(致)(疯)(狂)(涨)(跌)(。杠)(杆)(过)(高)(会)(导)(致)(市)(场)(投)(机)(气)(氛)(蔓)(延)(,完)(全)(脱)(离)(基)(本)(面)(的)(判)(断)(。
            沙)(k?(则)(表)(示)(,对)(于)(金)(融)(市)(场)(降)(杠)(杆)(的)(节)(奏)(,从)(有)(限)(的)(经)(历)(以)(及)(读)(过)(的)(部)(分)(海)(外)(文)(献)(来)(看)(,金)(融)(市)(场)(很)(少)(出)(现)(过)(有)(序)(降)(杠)(杆)(。如)(果)(金)(融)(市)(场)(能)(够)(做)(到)(有)(序)(降)(杠)(杆)(,美)(国)(就)(不)(会)(出)(现)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(,欧)(洲)(也)(不)(会)(出)(现)(债)(务)(危)(机)(。实)(体)(经)(济)(或)(许)(可)(能)(实)(现)(有)(序)(退)(出)(或)(降)(杠)(杆)(,但)(是)(在)(金)(融)(市)(场)(很)(难)(做)(到)(。因)(为)(金)(融)(市)(场)(上)(个)(体)(的)(理)(性)(选)(择)(往)(往)(会)(造)(成)(群)(体)(性)(的)(非)(理)(性)(行)(为)(。
            “但)(是)(我)(们)(在)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(上)(还)(是)(很)(谨)(慎)(的)(,也)(没)(有)(去)(赶)(热)(闹)(,事)(后)(来)(看)(是)(很)(正)(确)(的)(决)(策)(。”华)(泰)(柏)(瑞)(基)(金)(投)(资)(总)(监)(方)(伦)(煜)(也)(表)(示)(。
            还)(有)(一)(位)(基)(金)(经)(理)(向)(记)(者)(表)(示)(,反)(思)(去)(年)(的)(市)(场)(大)(跌)(,投)(资)(界)(做)(横)(向)(对)(比)(有)(些)(欠)(缺)(,比)(如)(台)(湾)(等)(地)(市)(场)(经)(验)(表)(明)(,加)(杠)(杆)(的)(市)(场)(下)(跌)(往)(往)(是)(非)(理)(性)(的)(。
            更)(重)(视)(流)(动)(性)(管)(理)(
            去)(年)(6、7月)(份)(市)(场)(大)(跌)(之)(际)(,流)(动)(性)(枯)(竭)(状)(态)(至)(今)(仍)(让)(不)(少)(人)(心)(有)(余)(悸)(,当)(前)(重)(视)(流)(动)(性)(管)(理)(成)(为)(主)(流)(声)(音)(。
            万)(家)(基)(金)(投)(资)(总)(监)(莫)(海)(波)(表)(示)(,这)(一)(波)(极)(端)(行)(情)(提)(醒)(公)(募)(基)(金)(,最)(重)(要)(的)(还)(是)(流)(动)(性)(的)(管)(理)(,流)(动)(性)(很)(差)(、估)(值)(过)(高)(的)(个)(股)(坚)(决)(不)(能)(抱)(团)(,这)(对)(风)(险)(管)(理)(提)(出)(了)(更)(高)(的)(要)(求)(。“我)(们)(在)(投)(资)(上)(也)(有)(一)(些)(变)(化)(,在)(投)(资)(时)(时)(刻)(警)(惕)(极)(端)(情)(况)(的)(出)(现)(;仓)(位)(控)(制)(和)(选)(股)(更)(不)(能)(脱)(离)(价)(值)(的)(判)(断)(,要)(避)(免)(参)(与)(市)(场)(的)(过)(度)(投)(机)(行)(为)(。”莫)(海)(波)(说)(。
            “对)(我)(自)(己)(来)(说)(,近)(一)(年)(影)(响)(和)(改)(变)(不)(是)(特)(别)(大)(。我)(做)(投)(资)(已)(经)(接)(近)(20年)(,投)(资)(策)(略)(一)(直)(是)(按)(照)(自)(下)(而)(上)(和)(自)(上)(而)(下)(相)(结)(合)(的)(角)(度)(来)(选)(股)(和)(构)(建)(组)(合)(。如)(果)(说)(从)(过)(去)(一)(年)(多)(中)(得)(到)(的)(启)(发)(,最)(大)(的)(一)(点)(就)(是)(流)(动)(性)(。”国)(海)(富)(兰)(克)(林)(基)(金)(投)(资)(总)(监)(徐)(荔)(蓉)(也)(表)(示)(,在)(去)(年)(上)(半)(年)(成)(交)(量)(这)(么)(巨)(大)(的)(市)(场)(当)(中)(都)(有)(可)(能)(出)(现)(流)(动)(性)(危)(机)(,这)(是)(一)(个)(比)(较)(新)(的)(经)(验)(。因)(此)(,一)(个)(正)(常)(的)(资)(金)(管)(理)(者)(,在)(管)(理)(自)(己)(的)(组)(合)(时)(应)(该)(适)(当)(地)(考)(虑)(流)(动)(性)(、收)(益)(、安)(全)(性)(的)(综)(合)(匹)(配)(,有)(一)(个)(相)(对)(均)(衡)(的)(配)(置)(,而)(不)(应)(该)(只)(追)(求)(其)(中)(一)(点)(。
            沙)(k?(则)(表)(示)(,当)(时)(公)(司)(每)(天)(都)(会)(监)(控)(每)(个)(组)(合)(的)(流)(动)(性)(状)(况)(。如)(今)(看)(来)(,当)(时)(流)(动)(性)(枯)(竭)(的)(原)(因)(主)(要)(是)(连)(续)(跌)(停)(和)(停)(牌)(股)(票)(数)(量)(过)(多)(,尤)(其)(是)(大)(面)(积)(停)(牌)(造)(成)(的)(影)(响)(很)(大)(。毕)(竟)(市)(场)(从)(未)(经)(历)(过)(这)(种)(突)(发)(状)(况)(,上)(市)(公)(司)(选)(择)(停)(牌)(来)(规)(避)(市)(场)(风)(险)(,单)(独)(来)(看)(是)(一)(种)(理)(性)(行)(为)(,但)(个)(体)(的)(理)(性)(选)(择)(往)(往)(会)(导)(致)(群)(体)(性)(的)(非)(理)(性)(行)(为)(。现)(在)(交)(易)(所)(已)(经)(出)(台)(了)(停)(牌)(新)(规)(,对)(停)(牌)(制)(度)(进)(行)(了)(完)(善)(,未)(来)(市)(场)(有)(望)(更)(加)(规)(范)(、更)(加)(健)(康)(。
            更)(重)(视)(企)(业)(内)(在)(价)(值)(
            “A股)(大)(跌)(对)(操)(作)(的)(影)(响)(不)(大)(,因)(为)(我)(们)(整)(体)(投)(资)(风)(格)(一)(直)(坚)(持)(注)(重)(公)(司)(的)(经)(营)(基)(本)(面)(、估)(值)(,即)(使)(在)(市)(场)(过)(度)(高)(涨)(时)(依)(然)(保)(持)(清)(醒)(,对)(一)(些)(纯)(题)(材)(、讲)(故)(事)(、完)(全)(没)(有)(业)(绩)(支)(撑)(的)(公)(司)(是)(不)(会)(碰)(的)(。相)(对)(来)(说)(,我)(们)(受)(伤)(程)(度)(小)(很)(多)(,市)(场)(已)(经)(逐)(步)(转)(向)(认)(同)(我)(们)(的)(投)(资)(思)(路)(。”国)(泰)(基)(金)(权)(益)(投)(资)(事)(业)(部)(总)(经)(理)(黄)(焱)(代)(表)(了)(一)(种)(主)(流)(思)(路)(——更)(重)(视)(企)(业)(内)(在)(价)(值)(。
            华)(泰)(柏)(瑞)(基)(金)(投)(资)(总)(监)(方)(伦)(煜)(也)(表)(示)(,对)(去)(年)(市)(场)(大)(跌)(刻)(骨)(铭)(心)(。当)(时)(觉)(得)(牛)(市)(的)(上)(涨)(很)(不)(理)(性)(,已)(经)(做)(好)(了)(随)(时)(撤)(退)(的)(准)(备)(。但)(实)(际)(上)(大)(跌)(真)(正)(来)(临)(时)(,受)(到)(各)(种)(外)(来)(因)(素)(的)(干)(扰)(,表)(现)(得)(并)(不)(是)(太)(尽)(如)(人)(意)(。“事)(后)(总)(结)(,在)(市)(场)(经)(济)(下)(,要)(尊)(重)(市)(场)(规)(律)(,A股)(也)(是)(市)(场)(经)(济)(的)(一)(部)(分)(,人)(为)(的)(违)(背)(规)(律)(的)(做)(法)(最)(后)(都)(会)(带)(来)(惨)(痛)(的)(教)(训)(。所)(以)(,经)(过)(去)(年)(这)(一)(波)(市)(场)(大)(跌)(之)(后)(,应)(该)(会)(更)(加)(理)(性)(,该)(坚)(持)(的)(一)(定)(要)(坚)(持)(,会)(更)(加)(关)(注)(基)(本)(面)(,会)(更)(加)(谨)(慎)(地)(对)(待)(那)(些)(投)(机)(行)(为)(。”
            商)(小)(虎)(则)(表)(示)(,投)(资)(是)(大)(浪)(淘)(金)(的)(过)(程)(,真)(正)(符)(合)(产)(业)(趋)(势)(的)(行)(业)(和)(公)(司)(才)(能)(笑)(到)(最)(后)(,产)(业)(投)(资)(思)(维)(是)(更)(长)(期)(、更)(价)(值)(的)(,而)(且)(也)(能)(够)(在)(市)(场)(中)(得)(到)(验)(证)(。市)(场)(大)(跌)(以)(来)(,有)(两)(次)(中)(级)(反)(弹)(机)(会)(,分)(别)(发)(生)(在)(2015年)(9月)(至)(11月)(、2016年)(2月)(至)(4月)(,虽)(然)(期)(间)(主)(题)(更)(换)(不)(断)(,但)(仍)(可)(以)(看)(到)(代)(表)(未)(来)(产)(业)(方)(向)(的)(影)(视)(IP、新)(能)(源)(汽)(车)(链)(都)(博)(得)(了)(非)(常)(好)(的)(超)(额)(收)(益)(,在)(每)(次)(波)(段)(反)(弹)(中)(也)(是)(率)(先)(启)(动)(的)(龙)(头)(板)(块)(,所)(以)(,不)(要)(仅)(局)(限)(于)(短)(时)(间)(和)(单)(个)(公)(司)(,要)(从)(产)(业)(的)(视)(角)(去)(投)(资)(。
            此)(外)(,徐)(荔)(蓉)(也)(建)(议)(,投)(资)(者)(要)(设)(定)(合)(理)(的)(回)(报)(率)((心)(理)(预)(期)(),从)(未)(来)(看)(,这)(个)(收)(益)(率)(的)(设)(定)(是)(需)(要)(逐)(步)(降)(低)(的)(。市)(场)(上)(涨)(或)(是)(下)(跌)(,其)(本)(质)(都)(是)(来)(自)(于)(上)(市)(公)(司)(盈)(利)(的)(增)(长)(或)(衰)(退)(,还)(是)(要)(关)(注)(所)(投)(资)(的)(公)(司)(本)(身)(,这)(才)(是)(真)(正)(长)(期)(能)(够)(带)(来)(回)(报)(的)(实)(质)(动)(作)(。
            呼)(吁)(建)(立)(基)(金)(长)(期)(考)(核)(机)(制)(
            公)(募)(基)(金)(抱)(团)(取)(暖)(、重)(押)(成)(长)(股)(、投)(资)(短)(视)(等)(问)(题)(,在)(过)(去)(一)(年)(也)(有)(所)(暴)(露)(并)(饱)(受)(争)(议)(。对)(此)(,基)(金)(业)(人)(士)(呼)(吁)(建)(立)(公)(募)(基)(金)(的)(长)(期)(考)(核)(机)(制)(,从)(考)(核)(机)(制)(上)(引)(导)(基)(金)(业)(更)(追)(求)(长)(期)(投)(资)(。
            沙)(k?(就)(直)(言)(,去)(年)(在)(市)(场)(狂)(热)(时)(期)(,作)(为)(主)(流)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(的)(公)(募)(基)(金)(群)(体)(依)(然)(维)(持)(很)(高)(的)(权)(益)(仓)(位)(,跟)(随)(市)(场)(一)(起)(进)(入)(非)(理)(性)(状)(态)(,而)(未)(能)(群)(体)(性)(地)(展)(现)(出)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(应)(有)(的)(投)(资)(理)(性)(和)(投)(资)(常)(识)(。原)(因)(是)(什)(么)(?反)(思)(其)(中)(主)(要)(的)(因)(素)(是)(公)(募)(基)(金)(行)(业)(的)(业)(绩)(考)(核)(方)(式)(过)(于)(短)(视)(。
            “目)(前)(中)(国)(公)(募)(基)(金)(的)(评)(价)(体)(系)(还)(是)(单)(一)(重)(视)(收)(益)(率)(,选)(择)(性)(地)(忽)(视)(了)(投)(资)(久)(期)(。其)(实)(对)(一)(个)(基)(金)(的)(评)(价)(至)(少)(应)(该)(包)(含)(三)(个)(方)(面)(——投)(资)(业)(绩)(、风)(险)(管)(理)(、投)(资)(期)(限)(。固)(定)(收)(益)(组)(合)(中)(通)(常)(会)(采)(用)(一)(个)(叫)(做)(“久)(期)(”的)(概)(念)(,即)(确)(定)(组)(合)(、个)(券)(的)(投)(资)(期)(限)(,未)(来)(3个)(月)(、1年)(甚)(至)(3年)(的)(预)(期)(收)(益)(率)(都)(可)(以)(按)(照)(投)(资)(规)(划)(去)(逐)(步)(实)(现)(。权)(益)(类)(基)(金)(经)(理)(其)(实)(也)(应)(该)(这)(样)(规)(划)(。”沙)(k?(说)(。
            从)(目)(前)(的)(实)(际)(运)(作)(、行)(业)(习)(惯)(与)(舆)(论)(导)(向)(等)(方)(面)(来)(看)(,公)(募)(权)(益)(基)(金)(经)(理)(的)(考)(核)(仍)(然)(单)(一)(、极)(度)(关)(注)(1年)(期)(甚)(至)(更)(短)(期)(的)(排)(名)(。沙)(k?(表)(示)(,这)(样)(就)(会)(导)(致)(权)(益)(类)(基)(金)(经)(理)(自)(然)(而)(然)(地)(将)(投)(资)(“久)(期)(”设)(置)(为)(3个)(月)(,被)(迫)(着)(眼)(于)(未)(来)(3个)(月)(甚)(至)(更)(短)(时)(间)(的)(组)(合)(管)(理)(,寄)(望)(于)(短)(期)(内)(组)(合)(、个)(股)(的)(预)(期)(收)(益)(率)(能)(超)(过)(同)(业)(,这)(也)(就)(必)(然)(会)(催)(生)(换)(手)(率)(过)(高)(、注)(重)(短)(期)(博)(弈)(、追)(求)(热)(门)(行)(业)(、跟)(风)(热)(门)(个)(股)(等)(现)(象)(。而)(社)(保)(基)(金)(、“巴)(菲)(特)(”们)(、QFII之)(所)(以)(长)(期)(业)(绩)((3年)(、5年)(以)(上)()要)(超)(过)(公)(募)(平)(均)(水)(平)(,其)(主)(要)(原)(因)(就)(是)(他)(们)(的)(投)(资)(久)(期)(是)(无)(限)(长)(的)(,这)(些)(资)(金)(不)(需)(要)(参)(与)(市)(场)(的)(短)(期)(博)(弈)(。
            沙)(k?(呼)(吁)(,公)(募)(基)(金)(的)(考)(核)(周)(期)(应)(该)(是)(3年)(或)(以)(上)(,不)(应)(做)(1年)(期)(的)(考)(核)(,每)(年)(业)(绩)(冠)(军)(频)(频)(换)(人)(已)(是)(行)(业)(常)(态)(,这)(也)(印)(证)(了)(招)(商)(基)(金)(的)(观)(点)(。他)(介)(绍)(,招)(商)(基)(金)(今)(年)(以)(来)(主)(动)(拉)(长)(了)(业)(绩)(考)(核)(周)(期)(:对)(基)(金)(经)(理)(的)(考)(核)(要)(求)(是)(第)(一)(年)(累)(计)(收)(益)(率)(进)(入)(前)(50%,两)(年)(期)(累)(计)(收)(益)(进)(入)(前)(45%,三)(年)(期)(累)(积)(收)(益)(率)(进)(入)(前)(40%。数)(据)(统)(计)(显)(示)(,三)(年)(期)(业)(绩)(排)(名)(高)(低)(与)(为)(投)(资)(者)(创)(造)(正)(回)(报)(的)(概)(率)(高)(度)(正)(相)(关)(,这)(才)(能)(回)(归)(公)(募)(基)(金)(为)(基)(民)(创)(造)(回)(报)(的)(价)(值)(本)(源)(。
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