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          广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

          全球资本流动活跃——BIS季报解读(一)

          来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年04月23日 04:44:37
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          (原)(标)(题)(:春)(江)(水)(暖)(鸭)(先)(知)(全)(球)(资)(本)(流)(动)(活)(跃)(——BIS季)(报)(解)(读)((一)()
          作)(者)(:阚)(明)(f/第)(一)(财)(经)(研)(究)(院)(研)(究)(员)(
          导)(语)(
          国)(际)(清)(算)(银)(行)((BIS)对)(全)(球)(市)(场)(资)(金)(流)(动)(的)(监)(测)(显)(示)(,2017年)(第)(一)(、二)(季)(度)(全)(球)(流)(动)(性)(趋)(于)(宽)(松)(。随)(着)(2017年)(全)(球)(经)(济)(的)(回)(暖)(,不)(同)(货)(币)(计)(价)(的)(全)(球)(宽)(口)(径)(信)(贷)(纷)(纷)(扩)(张)(,其)(中)(欧)(元)(信)(贷)(扩)(张)(速)(度)(最)(快)(,尤)(其)(值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,2017年)(一)(季)(度)(以)(来)(欧)(元)(贷)(款)(变)(得)(炙)(手)(可)(热)(,其)(规)(模)(的)(同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(12.26%,创)(2008年)(全)(球)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(的)(新)(高)(。
          一)(、全)(球)(流)(动)(性)(趋)(于)(宽)(松)(
          根)(据)(全)(球)(流)(动)(性)(指)(数)((GLIs),2016年)(二)(季)(度)(以)(来)(全)(球)(资)(本)(流)(动)(持)(续)(回)(暖)(态)(势)(,与)(此)(同)(时)(,金)(融)(市)(场)(也)(持)(续)(处)(于)(低)(波)(动)(的)(状)(态)(。
          就)(国)(际)(银)(行)(信)(贷)([1]而)(言)(,2016年)(下)(半)(年)(以)(来)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(的)(扩)(张)(持)(续)(了)(三)(个)(季)(度)(,2017年)(一)(季)(度)(国)(际)(银)(行)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(同)(比)(增)(长)(1.71%,较)(2016年)(四)(季)(度)(的)(1.73%有)(所)(放)(缓)(,但)(投)(向)(银)(行)(部)(门)(的)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(同)(比)(增)(速)([2]显)(著)(增)(至)(1.31%(图)(1)。
          图)(1国)(际)(银)(行)(信)(贷)(持)(续)(回)(暖)(
          就)(国)(际)(债)(务)(证)(券)(而)(言)(,2017年)(二)(季)(度)(债)(券)(存)(量)(规)(模)(同)(比)(增)(长)(4.08%,创)(2010年)(二)(季)(度)(以)(来)(最)(高)(增)(速)(,其)(中)(非)(银)(行)(部)(门)(的)(规)(模)(同)(比)(增)(长)(4.89%,为)(2013年)(三)(季)(度)(以)(来)(最)(高)(增)(速)(,银)(行)(间)(存)(量)(规)(模)(同)(比)(增)(长)([3]2.18%(图)(2)。
          图)(2国)(际)(债)(务)(证)(券)(
          二)(、不)(同)(计)(价)(货)(币)(的)(全)(球)(宽)(口)(径)(信)(贷)([4]同)(向)(扩)(张)(
          2016年)(各)(货)(币)(计)(价)(信)(贷)(的)(表)(现)(迥)(异)(,美)(元)(信)(贷)(增)(长)(独)(领)(风)(骚)(,日)(元)(信)(贷)(不)(断)(收)(缩)(,欧)(元)(区)(的)(债)(券)(通)(道)(则)(得)(益)(于)(低)(利)(率)(环)(境)(而)(不)(断)(扩)(张)(,但)(银)(行)(借)(贷)(通)(道)(却)(不)(断)(收)(缩)(。
          然)(而)(,随)(着)(2017年)(全)(球)(经)(济)(回)(暖)(,如)(今)(这)(三)(种)(货)(币)(计)(价)(的)(全)(球)(宽)(口)(径)(信)(贷)(纷)(纷)(扩)(张)(,其)(中)(欧)(元)(信)(贷)(扩)(张)(的)(速)(度)(最)(快)(,尤)(其)(值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,2017年)(一)(季)(度)(以)(来)(欧)(元)(贷)(款)(通)(道)(变)(得)(炙)(手)(可)(热)(,同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(12.26%,创)(2008年)(全)(球)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(的)(新)(高)(。
          1
          债)(券)(发)(行)(引)(领)(美)(元)(信)(贷)(增)(长)(
          根)(据)(美)(国)(境)(外)(非)(金)(融)(部)(门)(对)(美)(元)(信)(贷)((包)(括)(发)(行)(债)(券)(和)(贷)(款)()的)(需)(求)(看)(,2017年)(一)(季)(度)(美)(元)(信)(贷)(总)(量)(从)(2016年)(一)(季)(度)(的)(7.82万)(亿)(美)(元)(增)(长)(4.64%至)(8.19万)(亿)(美)(元)(,其)(中)(债)(券)(规)(模)(为)(2.81万)(亿)(美)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(8.59%;贷)(款)(规)(模)(达)(5.38万)(亿)(美)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(2.94%。如)(果)(加)(入)(非)(银)(行)(金)(融)(部)(门)(的)(需)(求)(,同)(期)(,非)(银)(行)(部)(门)(美)(元)(信)(贷)(存)(量)(从)(10.1万)(亿)(美)(元)(增)(至)(10.7万)(亿)(美)(元)((图)(3)。
          2017年)(二)(季)(度)(美)(元)(信)(贷)(总)(量)(延)(续)(了)(一)(季)(度)(的)(扩)(张)(之)(势)(,增)(速)(少)(许)(放)(缓)(。
          图)(3非)(金)(融)(部)(门)(美)(元)(信)(贷)(需)(求)(上)(升)((单)(位)(:万)(亿)(美)(元)((左)(图)(),%(右)(图)())
          其)(中)(,2017年)(一)(季)(度)(流)(向)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(非)(银)(行)(部)(门)(的)(美)(元)(计)(价)(信)(贷)((包)(括)(发)(行)(债)(券)(和)(贷)(款)()存)(量)(规)(模)(较)(上)(一)(季)(增)(长)(了)(500亿)(美)(元)(至)(3.4万)(亿)(美)(元)(,并)(主)(要)(以)(发)(行)(债)(券)(的)(方)(式)(为)(主)((图)(4)。
          就)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(不)(同)(区)(域)(的)(信)(贷)(活)(动)(来)(看)(,从)(2016年)(四)(季)(度)(到)(2017年)(一)(季)(度)(,过)(半)(的)(信)(贷)(流)(向)(了)(新)(兴)(亚)(洲)([5],该)(区)(域)(的)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(在)(经)(过)(五)(季)(的)(萎)(缩)(后)(重)(拾)(扩)(张)(的)(势)(头)(,2017年)(一)(季)(度)(环)(比)(增)(长)(了)(330亿)(美)(元)(,其)(中)(,中)(国)(是)(核)(心)(驱)(动)(力)(,;三)(成)(的)(信)(贷)(流)(向)(了)(拉)(丁)(美)(洲)(和)(加)(勒)(比)(地)(区)(,该)(区)(域)(的)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(增)(长)(了)(170亿)(美)(元)(;流)(向)(中)(东)(和)(非)(洲)(地)(区)(的)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(增)(长)(了)(30亿)(美)(元)(;而)(流)(向)(新)(兴)(欧)(洲)(经)(济)(体)(的)(信)(贷)(延)(续)(前)(两)(季)(环)(比)(缩)(减)(的)(趋)(势)(,2017年)(一)(季)(度)(环)(比)(缩)(减)(了)(30亿)(美)(元)((图)(4)。
          图)(4EME非)(银)(行)(部)(门)(借)(款)(人)(的)(非)(银)(行)(美)(元)(信)(贷)(状)(况)((单)(位)(:万)(亿)(美)(元)()
          2
          贷)(款)(通)(道)(的)(欧)(元)(信)(贷)(增)(速)(创)(2008年)(以)(来)(的)(新)(高)(
          2014年)(以)(来)(得)(益)(于)(低)(利)(率)(的)(环)(境)(,欧)(元)(债)(券)(备)(受)(青)(睐)(,而)(贷)(款)(通)(道)(则)(相)(对)(低)(迷)(,然)(而)(2017年)(一)(季)(度)(以)(来)(贷)(款)(通)(道)(变)(得)(炙)(手)(可)(热)(,其)(规)(模)(的)(同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(12.26%,创)(2008年)(全)(球)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(的)(新)(高)(。
          这)(从)(侧)(面)(体)(现)(了)(欧)(元)(区)(银)(行)(体)(系)(“元)(气)(”逐)(步)(恢)(复)(,市)(场)(信)(心)(增)(强)(,毕)(竟)(2017年)(以)(来)(欧)(元)(区)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(有)(力)(、Sentix信)(心)(指)(数)(不)(断)(攀)(升)(、欧)(元)(区)(股)(市)(表)(现)(亮)(眼)(、欧)(元)(对)(美)(元)(表)(现)(也)(很)(强)(劲)(。
          根)(据)(欧)(元)(区)(境)(外)(非)(金)(融)(部)(门)(对)(欧)(元)(信)(贷)(的)(需)(求)(看)(,借)(款)(的)(总)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(从)(2016年)(一)(季)(度)(的)(2.2万)(亿)(美)(元)(增)(长)(9%至)(2017一)(季)(度)(的)(2.4万)(亿)(美)(元)(,其)(中)(债)(券)(规)(模)(同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(9.29%;贷)(款)(规)(模)(同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(12.26%,该)(增)(速)(为)(2008年)(全)(球)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(的)(新)(高)((图)(5)。
          2017年)(二)(季)(度)(欧)(元)(信)(贷)(总)(量)(延)(续)(了)(一)(季)(度)(的)(扩)(张)(之)(势)(,增)(速)(有)(所)(加)(快)(。
          图)(5非)(金)(融)(部)(门)(欧)(元)(信)(贷)(状)(况)((单)(位)(:万)(亿)(欧)(元)((左)(图)(),%(右)(图)())
          3
          日)(元)(信)(贷)(回)(暖)(
          2017年)(一)(季)(度)(,日)(本)(境)(外)(非)(金)(融)(部)(门)(借)(款)(人)(对)(日)(元)(信)(贷)(的)(需)(求)(有)(所)(回)(暖)(,日)(元)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(较)(上)(一)(季)(增)(长)(近)(5%,同)(比)(增)(长)(3%。
          就)(不)(同)(的)(信)(贷)(方)(式)(看)(,走)(债)(券)(通)(道)(的)(日)(元)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(同)(比)(增)(长)(0.60%,走)(贷)(款)(通)(道)(的)(日)(元)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(同)(比)(增)(长)(3.72%,为)(两)(年)(来)(的)(高)(点)((图)(6)。
          2017年)(二)(季)(度)(,日)(元)(信)(贷)(总)(量)(延)(续)(了)(一)(季)(度)(的)(扩)(张)(之)(势)(,增)(速)(显)(著)(加)(快)(,尤)(其)(是)(贷)(款)(通)(道)(的)(日)(元)(信)(贷)(,二)(季)(度)(该)(类)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(同)(比)(增)(长)(8.3%,创)(三)(年)(来)(的)(新)(高)(。
          图)(6非)(金)(融)(部)(门)(日)(元)(信)(贷)(状)(况)((单)(位)(:万)(亿)(日)(元)((左)(图)(),%(右)(图)())
          三)(、流)(向)(中)(国)(的)(全)(球)(宽)(口)(径)(信)(贷)(状)(况)(
          终)(结)(了)(持)(续)(六)(季)(的)(收)(缩)(之)(势)(,2017年)(一)(季)(度)(,流)(向)(中)(国)(非)(金)(融)(部)(门)(的)(跨)(境)(宽)(口)(径)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(环)(比)(增)(长)(了)(237亿)(美)(元)(,而)(且)(该)(趋)(势)(在)(二)(季)(度)(得)(到)(延)(续)(,信)(贷)(规)(模)(又)(环)(比)(增)(长)(了)(131亿)(美)(元)(至)(5480亿)(美)(元)((图)(7),2017年)(一)(、二)(季)(度)(,累)(计)(流)(入)(规)(模)(为)(368亿)(美)(元)(,而)(流)(入)(的)(渠)(道)(主)(要)(以)(贷)(款)(为)(主)(,债)(券)(为)(辅)(。
          图)(7流)(向)(中)(国)(非)(银)(行)(部)(门)(的)(全)(球)(宽)(口)(径)(信)(贷)((单)(位)(:百)(万)(美)(元)()
          来)(源)(:BIS,第)(一)(财)(经)(研)(究)(院)(整)(理)(。
          四)(、银)(行)(压)(力)(预)(警)(指)(数)(
          BIS编)(制)(银)(行)(压)(力)(的)(预)(警)(指)(数)(来)(捕)(捉)(信)(贷)(剧)(烈)(扩)(张)(而)(导)(致)(的)(潜)(在)(中)(期)(银)(行)(业)(风)(险)(。
          信)(贷)(/GDP缺)(口)(这)(一)(衡)(量)(私)(人)(部)(门)(信)(贷)(偏)(离)(长)(期)(趋)(势)(程)(度)(的)(指)(标)(显)(示)(,中)(国)(、加)(拿)(大)(和)(中)(国)(香)(港)(特)(别)(行)(政)(区)(的)(缺)(口)(依)(然)(高)(于)(10的)(警)(戒)(线)((图)(8),这)(些)(国)(家)(和)(地)(区)(潜)(在)(风)(险)(的)(积)(累)(都)(与)(房)(地)(产)(有)(关)(,当)(局)(意)(识)(到)(风)(险)(后)(均)(采)(取)(了)(不)(少)(措)(施)(,如)(今)(加)(拿)(大)(的)(缺)(口)(从)(2016年)(三)(季)(度)(的)(16.9降)(至)(2017年)(一)(季)(度)(的)(11.3,而)(中)(国)(的)(缺)(口)(也)(从)(2016年)(一)(季)(度)(的)(28.8降)(至)(22.1,不)(幸)(的)(是)(中)(国)(香)(港)(的)(缺)(口)(依)(然)(在)(扩)(大)(。BIS研)(究)(表)(明)(,信)(贷)(/GDP缺)(口)(超)(过)(10是)(一)(个)(有)(效)(的)(预)(警)(信)(号)(。
          此)(外)(,BIS估)(算)(的)(债)(务)(偿)(还)(率)(也)(是)(衡)(量)(风)(险)(的)(一)(个)(指)(标)(。中)(国)(、土)(耳)(其)(和)(中)(国)(香)(港)(的)(指)(标)(也)(均)(在)(预)(警)(区)(间)(内)(,其)(中)(中)(国)(香)(港)(居)(民)(和)(企)(业)(的)(债)(务)(偿)(还)(率)(最)(高)(为)(7.4,中)(国)(和)(土)(耳)(其)(均)(为)(5.4。
          图)(8中)(国)(信)(贷)(/GDP缺)(口)(仍)(远)(高)(于)(警)(戒)(线)((单)(位)(:%ofGDP)
          来)(源)(:BIS,第)(一)(财)(经)(研)(究)(院)(整)(理)(。
          注)(释)(:
          [1]跨)(境)(信)(贷)(与)(以)(外)(币)(计)(价)(的)(本)(地)(信)(贷)(。
          [2]银)(行)(信)(贷)(同)(比)(增)(速)(是)(以)(几)(何)(平)(均)(的)(方)(法)(计)(算)(。
          [3]国)(际)(债)(务)(证)(券)(的)(同)(比)(增)(速)(经)(过)(链)(式)(指)(数)(调)(整)(,去)(除)(了)(非)(交)(易)(因)(素)(导)(致)(的)(资)(产)(价)(格)(变)(动)(。
          [4]BIS的)(全)(球)(宽)(口)(径)(信)(贷)((GlobalCredit)为)(发)(行)(的)(债)(券)(和)(贷)(款)(总)(和)(。
          [5]包)(括)(中)(国)(、香)(港)(特)(别)(行)(政)(区)(、印)(度)(、印)(尼)(、韩)(国)(、马)(来)(西)(亚)(、新)(加)(坡)(和)(泰)(国)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
          声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
          阅)(读)(()
          )


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